As the Australian federal election arrives in less than a week, the latest YouGov poll commissioned on behalf of ACM indicates a shift in Eden-Monaro voter intentions, with data showing Labor’s Kristy McBain winning with a 4.5 percent swing towards her according to YouGov’s Director of Public Data Paul Smith. The polling looked at 12 key regional seats between April 17 and April 24, with a 6 percent margin of error.
PHOTO: Eden-Monaro voter intention CREDIT: ACM – The Senior
Nationally, according to seperate YouGov data the Labor Party has reached a new high in the two-party preferred (2PP) standings. According to the poll conducted between April 17-22, Labor now leads the Coalition 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent, marking a 0.5 percent increase since the previously published poll on April 18. This increase suggests a growing preference for Labor among voters.
PHOTO: Two party preferred vote data CREDIT: YouGov
The data has come as shock to Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro, Jo van der Plaat, who asserted the numbers shown in surveys represent a limited view of the electorate and that the messages she is receiving on the ground are overwhelmingly positive.
“When I’m out knocking on doors and visiting small business, I often come home at the end of the day, and think you know, maybe I’ve just picked a good street, but it has been fairly consistent for the last four months with the messages that I’m getting,” Ms van der Plaat said.
PHOTO: Jo van der Plaat, Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro.
Ms van der Plaat went on to say, “I just don’t think the numbers that people are sharing are reflective of what people are actually saying to me on the ground.”
PHOTO: If recent Polls are accurate, Kristy McBain will retain the seat of Eden-Monaro CREDIT: Timothy Nicholson
According to YouGov polls the landscape in Eden-Monaro has changed substantially since the first MRP Poll on February 16, 2025 with the Liberal Party initially projected to flip the seat of Eden-Monaro, before a March 29 MRP poll indicated Labor would win the seat by a small margin.
YouGov Director of Public Data Paul Smith said, “The largest single reason for the downturn in Coalition voting support in Eden-Monaro and nationally has been the unpopularity of the Coalitions plans to sack 41,000 public servants and their proposals to ban working from home for government employees.”
With recent polls now suggesting Labor are in a strengthening position both nationally and locally in Eden-Monaro, and given the Liberal candidate’s conflicting reports on voter intention, some might remember past elections like in 2019, where Bill Shorten was projected to become Prime Minister, and ultimately lost.