Amidst a closely contested political landscape, the first YouGov MRP model for the 2025 federal election suggests that Australia could be heading towards a hung parliament. In a revelation that foreshadows critical contests across the country, the model projects the Coalition to win 73 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives, with the Labor party taking 66 seats.
The projection would leave the Coalition just two seats short of an outright majority, putting the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, in a favourable position to form a government. Should Dutton become Prime Minister, it would spell an end to Anthony Albanese’s tenure, marking the first one-term federal government in 94 years.
Locally, Eden-Monaro, know as a bellwether electorate in New South Wales, is under the spotlight. Currently held by Labor’s Kristy McBain, the seat is deemed at risk according to YouGov’s projections. Ms McBain, the incumbent Local Government Minister, is one of two government ministers predicted to lose their seats according to YouGov’s model, casting uncertainty over Labor’s hold on the region.
In response to the projections, Kristy McBain reiterated her commitment to Eden-Monaro highlighting her accomplishments in delivering pivotal projects.
“I’ve never taken Eden-Monaro for granted, but have a strong track record of working with all levels of government and the community to deliver positive outcomes for the Snowy Monaro region,” she said.
PHOTO: Kristy McBain.
Ms McBain emphasised significant local investments, including $25 million towards the expansion of the Bombala Multi-Purpose Service, $15.3 million in Roads to Recovery funding, and substantial allocations for road safety and community infrastructure.
Opposing her is the Liberal candidate Jo van der Plaat, who says change in Eden-Monaro is urgent.
“I’m not taking anything for granted – my only focus is on getting out to all of the corners of Eden-Monaro, and listening to the local community and their issues,” Ms van der Plaat said.
PHOTO: Jo van der Plaat.
The Liberal candidate has been actively engaging with residents, citing cost-of-living hardships and inadequate access to housing, GPs, and mental health services as critical concerns driving her campaign. Ms van der Plaat sees these challenges as illustrating the urgent need for governmental change, stating “Eden-Monaro can’t afford another three years of Albanese Labor.”
PHOTO: Jo van der Plaat campaigning at Cooma’s Rotary Markets.
Across the national landscape, the YouGov model reveals that traditional Labor strongholds, including the coalmining seat of Hunter and neighbouring Shortland and Paterson, are predicted to favour the Coalition. In Western Sydney, the seat of Werriwa, famously held by former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, is projected to experience a 5.9% swing to the Coalition.
Despite these prospective gains, the Coalition would remain unsuccessful in reclaiming seats lost to “Teal” independents in previous elections, hinting at a decline in appeal among affluent, educated voters in urban areas.
PHOTO: YouGov MRP model projection for Eden-Monaro.
Labor, while losing ground overall, might still clinch strategic victories in Brisbane, Ryan, and Griffith from the Greens and reclaim Fowler from the Independent Dai Le, contingent on preferential voting outcomes. This dynamic underscores the complexity of the electoral battle as Labor strives to mitigate its losses and possibly regain seats from its political rivals.
The YouGov MRP model is renowned for its detailed projections, leveraging a combination of demographic characteristics and past voter patterns to estimate electoral outcomes. Having delivered accurate forecasts in previous elections globally, the model’s insights are keenly observed as Australia edges towards what promises to be a closely fought federal election.
I reckon EdenMonaro should vote for an Independent.. the Red and the Blue have both failed us all over many terms.
Mobile blackspots are worse than ever.
Roads are atrocious.
Electricity is close to unaffordable for many.
Constant rate-rises.
No end in sight to this area being neglected.. so a smart electorate would put on an independent whose vote would be crucial and quite valuable in a hing parliament.